The data showed how projected hospitalizations of patients with COVID-19 would remain below capacity if restrictions were lifted around the start of the summer — but only if 20 per cent of Canadians have two received two doses of vaccines and 75 per cent have received their first.

An accompanying graph shows that hospitalizations could surge beyond capacity this fall if restrictions were lifted at the same time this summer but only 20 per cent had two doses and 55 per cent had one.