Ruling party was deeply unpopular but threat of US tariffs combined with prospect of new leader spurs rise in polls

A Leger poll released on Tuesday put the Conservatives on 38% public support with the Liberals on 35%, compared with 43% and 21% respectively in December. And an Ekos poll, also released on Tuesday, put the Liberals on 38% and the Conservatives on 37%.

We investigate whether firm-level political connections affect the allocation of exemptions from tariffs imposed on $US 550 billion of Chinese goods imported to the United States annually beginning in 2018. Evidence points to politicians not only rewarding supporters but also punishing opponents: Past campaign contributions to the party controlling (in opposition to) the executive branch increase (decrease) approval likelihood. Our findings point to quid pro quo arrangements between politicians and firms, as opposed to the “information” channel linking political access to regulatory outcomes.

a 1-standard-deviation increase in contributions to Republican (Democrat) candidates increases the probability of approval by 3.94 (decreases the probability of approval by 3.40) percentage points